EU Reset Must Reverse Trade Slump?

30th January 2026

New survey data of over 2,000 exporters from the?British Chambers of Commerce Insights Unit, has laid stark the impact of Brexit, Covid, war, and tariffs on the UK’s exports. The data was collected between 10 November and 8 December 2025.

• In new survey data, the percentage of businesses reporting increased export orders has fallen to 21% in Q4 2025, compared with 31% in Q2 2018 
• A further 50% report no change, while 28% report a decrease
• Smaller and medium sized businesses have been hit much harder than larger firms, with just 19% of SMEs reporting increased orders, compared with 39% of firms with more than 250 employees

Ahead of the sixth anniversary of Brexit on January 31st, ?the Trade Confidence Outlook results also underline the urgency for the EU Reset to deliver.  

The Insights Unit found that overall, 21% of exporters reported an increase in export sales, while 28% reported a fall, and 50% reported no change. 

Micro-exporters with fewer than 10 employees are faring worse – only 17% reported increased export orders in Q4 (16% in Q3), 30% reported a fall, and 53% reported no change. 

In contrast, 39% of large exporters, with more than 250 staff, saw a boost in overseas orders (42% in Q3), 14% reported a decrease, and 47% said they’d seen no change.

This differs considerably from the picture in Q2 2018 when 31% of all firms saw increased orders (21% in Q4 2025), 55% no change (50% in Q4 2025) and 14% a decrease (28% Q4 in 2025). 

Since Q2 2018 the number of firms reporting increased orders has never been higher than 28%, not even when the global economy re-opened after the pandemic. Since Q3 of 2024 it has averaged just 22%.  

William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said:

“For smaller businesses, the last seven years have been some of the most challenging ever to try and grow overseas exports. 

“Things started to take a turn for the worse as the trade implications of Brexit became clear in 2018 and they have been in the doldrums ever since.

“A succession of further shocks on top of that - from Covid, wars, supply chain disruption and tariffs - have turned exporting into an uphill slog where the path keeps getting steeper.

“The Prime Minister’s trip to China and the real progress made on trade deals with the US, EU and India last year show the Government understands the difficulties.

“But we need to see a real focus in 2026 on delivering what has been agreed. The BCC’s EU reset report sets out very clearly the big issues that must be tackled before the year is out.” 

The BCC’s EU reset report has 25 recommendations to improve UK-EU trade in the short, medium and long-term. 

Its top five proposals for discussions in 2026 are:  

• Negotiate a deep SPS (animal and plant products) agreement to remove export health certificates  
• Finalise UK and EU Emissions Trading Scheme linkage to exempt goods from Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms  
• Establish a youth mobility scheme
• Secure full UK participation in SAFE – the EU’s Defence Finance Initiative
• Enhance VAT cooperation and customs simplification to reduce trade costs