Increased Export Volatility Ahead Of Tariffs

17th April 2025

The Trade Confidence Outlook, conducted by the BCC’s award-winning Insights Unit, is a survey of just over 1,800 UK SME exporters.

• Only a fifth (21%) of SME exporters saw increased overseas sales in Q1 of 2025 
• More than a quarter (27%) said their exports had declined with over half (53%) seeing no change
• Advanced orders fared no better, as 20% saw these rise while 28% reported a decline

The Trade Confidence Outlook, conducted by the BCC’s award-winning Insights Unit, is a survey of just over 1,800 UK SME exporters.

It shows the percentage of SME exporters reporting increased exports remained depressed ahead of the introduction of US tariffs.

Overall, 21% of SME exporters reported an increase in export sales, while 27% reported a decrease and 53% reported no change. The position for advance orders was even less optimistic with 20% of SMEs reporting an increase, 52% no change, and 28% a decrease. SME exporters are consistently more likely to report decreased exports compared to before the pandemic and Brexit.

In Q2 2018, only 14% of SME exporters reported a decrease in overseas sales, in Q1 2025 it stands at 26%.

By contrast, domestic demand for SME exporters remains consistently more buoyant, with 28% reporting an increase in domestic sales in Q1 2025, against 21% for overseas sales.

SME manufacturers are more likely to report increased overseas sales, with 24% reporting a rise in exports. Whereas just 19% of SME services exporters said they saw sales rise. But services show more stability with 24% reporting a decrease and 57 no change. This compares to 31% of manufacturers experiencing a decline in sales and 45% reporting no change. 

The picture for advance export orders showed no improvement, with 22% of SME manufacturers reporting an increase, and 19% of SME services exporters. 

William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said: 

“This data does not paint a rosy picture for exports ahead of the imposition of US tariffs. Although it is inevitable that uncertainty about US actions may well have influenced the SME export trade at the start of the year. 

“It is also likely that manufacturers fared better than services in Q1 as US customers looked to stock up on goods ahead of tariffs coming in. 

“We believe the Government has adopted the right strategy for tariffs of negotiation not retaliation, and the signals from the White House are there is a deal to be done. 

“It is also right to pursue a closer trading relationship with the EU and to point businesses towards the burgeoning opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region. 

“But the upcoming Trade Strategy must do more to provide firms with support around exports, including access to finance. 

“Over 40 per cent of Chamber members export due to the framework of support we place around them. This level of advice, training and guidance needs to be replicated across the land.

“The next few years will be pivotal for the UK’s export success for decades to come. It is crucial the Trade Strategy puts us in the best possible place to deal with the challenges and take full advantage of the opportunities.”