Revised GDP figures show that economic growth remains weak

20th December 2012

Quarterly GDP growth in Q3 2012 revised down from 1.

0% to 0.9% Manufacturing growth revised down from 0.9% to 0.7% Service sector growth revised down from 1.3% to 1.2% Commenting on the second revision of the GDP figures for Q3 2012, published today by the ONS -Whilst the third quarter estimate was revised down to 0.9%, estimates for earlier quarters were revised up and the net effect was that annual growth of GDP remains unchanged. This reinforces our assessment that the ONS's original figures were somewhat erratic. Our QES survey has suggested that the economy was stronger than the ONS had reported in earlier quarters, whilst the rebound in the third quarter was less pronounced than they indicated. We would not be surprised to see further revisions along these lines next year. -Some of the additional detail, revealed by the new estimates, are however positive. Business investment has shown good growth in the third quarter, and there has been a strong improvement in net trade with exports up 1.2%, and imports down 0.4%. This reverses some of the deterioration in net trade that we saw in the first half of the year. -Notwithstanding these positive developments, it is clear that economic growth remains much too weak, and more effective measures are needed to enable businesses to drive recovery by strengthening the growth in exports and jobs.