Tariffs Loom Large As Growth Forecasts Cut

23rd April 2025

William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, responds to the latest IMF forecasts for the UK and Global economies

Responding to the latest IMF forecasts for the UK and Global economies, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

“The downgrades for both the UK and global economy should come as no surprise to anyone. Businesses are under no illusion that this year will be tough, and sustained growth is likely to be elusive.

“Firms were already facing into a wall of higher domestic costs, including the national insurance rise, before the US unleashed its explosive tariff proposals. 

“But there is strong support for the Government’s approach to continue negotiation and not immediately retaliate. The US has been open to talks and the signals that a deal can be reached are promising. 

“Firms also don’t want to have all their eggs in one basket and are keen to see closer trading relationships with the EU and the Indo-Pacific region. 

“There is no denying the outlook remains clouded with uncertainty. As retaliatory moves by other countries escalate, the prospects of a global trade war and wider economic fallout are increasing.

“But talk of recession remains premature, it is by no means certain. The government must do all it can to boost business confidence by providing practical support around infrastructure projects, reforming business rates and cutting red tape in the right areas.

“It must also stick firmly to its pledge of no further tax rises for business in the autumn budget and instead consider all its fiscal options.” 

More information on the IMF forecasts can be found here.